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Livzon Group (000513): Performance in line with expectations

Livzon Group (000513): Performance in line with expectations

Results review 2018 results are in line with expectations. Livzon Group’s 2018 results announced: operating income 88.

61 ppm, a 10-year increase3.

9%; net profit attributable to parent company 10.

82 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.

3%, corresponding to profit 1.

51 yuan.

The deduction of non-net profit carries an annual growth of 15.

51% to 9.

4.7 billion.

In addition, the company announced an 18-year dividend plan: 10 yuan for 3 shares and 12 yuan.

  Development trend: The proportion of Shenqi Fuzheng income decreased 7.
.

1% to 11.

3%.

In 2018, the senator’s income was reduced by 36.

3% to 10.

02 trillion, mainly due to the influence of medical insurance on the prescription control of traditional Chinese medicine injections.

The gross profit margin of this product is 78.

9%, more than ten years 2.

8 units.

Rat nerve growth factor income has fallen by 14 each year.

1% to 4.

4.4 billion.

At present, the combined income of Senator Di Puzheng and rat nerve growth factor accounts for 16% of the total income.

3%, a decline of 8 per year.

2 units.

  Second- and third-tier breeds continued to exert their strength.

In 2018, 1) the digestive tract sector (14% of total revenue).

1%): Ipraprazole enteric-coated tablets (a total of 23 provincial tenders were launched in 18 years, and at the same time Jiangsu Medical Insurance) revenue increased by 37.

3%, Rabeprazole income increased by 40 in ten years.

5%; 2) the field of gonadotropins (18% of total revenue).

2%): Leproprolin microsphere revenue increased by 40.

3%, urine follicle stimulating hormone income increased by 7 in ten years.

8%.

In addition, voriconazole income for injections increased by 19.

0%; Fluvoxamine and tubular ropirone income increase by 17 annually

1% and 38.

1%.
The company strengthened the construction of marketing team, increased the coverage and development of hospitals; optimized the marketing assessment, and replaced the assessment system of hospital coverage of key varieties.
The profit of the API and diagnostic reagents business segment maintained steady growth.

  Research and development progress is further advanced.

杭州桑拿So far, the company has completed the declaration and production of recombinant human telogen.

Dantraline sodium for injection has completed clinical research; triptorelin acetate microspheres for injection (1 month sustained release) project has entered the clinical research stage, leuprolide acetate microspheres for injection (3 months sustained release) The project has been declared for production.

  Earnings forecasts take into account the increase in future R & D expenditures. We slightly lower our 19-year earnings forecasts by 5% to 1.

77 yuan, profit forecast for 2020 date 2.

08 yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.

6% and 17.

5%.

  It is estimated and recommended that the current A-share merger corresponds to 20/17 times P / E in 2019/20.

Maintain A / H share recommendation, maintain A-share target price of RMB 37 (corresponding to 21/18 times 19/20 P / E, 7% upside), maintain H-share target price of HK $ 31 (corresponding to 19/20 20)/ 17 times P / E, 14% upside).

  The risk of Shenqi Fuzheng and rat nerve growth factor is further subdivided, and the research progress is less than expected.